Avaliação Probabilística de Risco Aplicação a Sistemas de Geração de Energia Elétrica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/tema.2009.010.02.0145Abstract
Neste artigo, serão apresentados os principais conceitos e técnicas utilizadas na Avaliação Probabilística de Risco, com ênfase às aplicações no sistema de geração e transmissão de energia elétrica. O estudo de PRA – sigla de Probabilistic Risk Assessment, trabalha com modelagem para sistemas markovianos de estados: dado um conjunto finito S (equipamentos) para cujos elementos está definido um segundo conjunto também finito de estados, existe uma taxa de transição entre tais estados que indica uma probabilidade de uma certa configuração de S que é função apenas da conjuração no tempo anterior (no caso discreto). Dois métodos comumente utilizados em análise de PRA são MCS – Minimum Cut Set, conjunto de cortes mínimos, e os Diagramas Binários de Decisão (BDD). Outros métodos, tais como redes bayesianas, também são aplicáveis.References
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