Optimal Vaccination Campaigns Using Stochastic SIR Model and Multiobjective Impulsive Control

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5540/tcam.2021.022.02.00179

Keywords:

Planning of vaccination campaigns, Multiobjective optimization, Impulsive control, Stochastic SIR

Abstract

A multiobjective impulsive control scheme is proposed to give answers on how optimal vaccination campaigns should be implemented, regarding two conflicting targets: making the total number of infecteds small and the vaccination campaign as handy as possible.
In this paper, a stochastic SIR model is used to better depict the characteristics of a disease in practical terms, where little influences may lead to sudden and unpredictable changes in the behavior of transmissions. This model is extended to analyze the effects of impulsive vaccinations in two phases: the transient regime control, taking into account the necessity to reduce the number of infected individuals to an acceptable level in a finite time, and the permanent regime control, that will act with fixed vaccinations to avoid another outbreak. A parallel version of NSGA-II is used as the multiobjective optimization machinery, considering both the probability of eradication and the vaccination campaign costs. The final result using the proposed framework nondominated policies that can guide for public managers to decide which is the best procedure to be taken depending on the present situation.

Author Biography

R. T. N. Cardoso, CENTRO FEDERAL DE EDUCAÇÃO TECNOLÓGICA DE MINAS GERAIS

Atualmente é professor associado do Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais, no Departamento de Matemática. Possui graduação em Matemática Computacional pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (2002), mestrado em Matemática pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (2005) e doutorado em Engenharia Elétrica pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (2008). Tem experiência na área de Matemática Aplicada, com ênfase em Otimização, atuando principalmente no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Modelagem Matemática e Computacional nos seguintes temas: controle da dengue, otimização de carteiras de investimento, modelos SIR e MBI, modelos presa-predador, otimização multiobjetivo, controle impulsivo, programação dinâmica.

References

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Published

2021-06-28

How to Cite

Cardoso, R. T. N., Dusse, A. C., & Adam, K. (2021). Optimal Vaccination Campaigns Using Stochastic SIR Model and Multiobjective Impulsive Control. Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics, 22(2), 201–220. https://doi.org/10.5540/tcam.2021.022.02.00179

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 2 (2021)

Section

Original Article

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