Dinâmica de Transmissão das Moléstias Infecciosas: Múltiplas Infecções e Período de Latência
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/tema.2005.06.01.0131Abstract
Neste trabalho propõe-se um modelo matemático do tipo SEIRE, com população constante, considerando a reinfecção dos indivíduos. Diferente da maioria dos modelos clássicos em epidemiologia, e principalmente por causa da hipótese de múltiplas infecções, o modelo apresenta uma bifurcação “backward”, o que pode resultar em um comportamento que não é o usual de um modelo baseado na lei da ação das massas. Ou seja, quando o número de reprodutibilidade basal, R0, esteja entre um valor crítico e um, podem surgir dois equilíbrios endêmicos além do equilíbrio trivial. Procura-se explorar o efeito das múltiplas infecções em conjun ção com o período de latência, mostrando a importância relativa entre eles. De um modo geral, quando a permanência dos indivíduos no estágio latente for muito lenta, como é o caso da tuberculose, as infecções múltiplas têm importância não só na prevalência, mas tembém na questão da erradicação da doença.References
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