Numerical Simulations of the SEIR Epidemiological Model with Population Heterogeneity to Assess the Efficiency of Social Isolation in Controlling COVID-19 in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/tcam.2022.023.02.00257Palavras-chave:
epidemiological modeling, social Isolation, COVID-19Resumo
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the epidemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19), which is a highly contagious virus that has been causing deaths worldwide. Early treatment was proven to be inefficient and social isolation became the main factor inhibiting the disease, before vaccination. In this article, we evaluate the efficiency of this isolation as a control, through numerical simulations of mathematical model of the SEIR type (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) with population heterogeneity, in which the susceptible population was distributed according to the age group (children / youth, adults and elderly) and the infectious population was categorized according to the severity of symptoms (severe, mild and asymptomatic). The results suggest that the isolation of only one of the susceptible subpopulations is inefficient to control the spread of the virus, which indicates that vertical isolation is not enough to contain the proliferation of COVID-19. Furthermore, the disease does not have the strength to invade the population when there is sufficient social isolation composed of susceptible subpopulations and the epidemiological scenario improves when there is awareness of the importance of the quarantine of infectious individuals with mild symptoms.
Referências
Y.-R. Guo, Q.-D. Cao, Z.-S. Hong, Y.-Y. Tan, S.-D. Chen, H.-J. Jin, K.-S. Tan, D.-Y. Wang, and Y. Yan, “The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) outbreak–an update on the status,” Military Medical Research, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 1–10, 2020.
“World health organization. coronavirus disease (covid-2019) situation reports.” www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/
situation-reports, 2020. Acessado em 27 de março de 2020.
Q. Li, X. Guan, P. Wu, X. Wang, L. Zhou, Y. Tong, R. Ren, K. S. Leung, E. H. Lau, J. Y. Wong, et al., “Early transmission dynamics in wuhan, china, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia,” New England Journal of Medicine, 2020.
Y.-H. Jin, L. Cai, Z.-S. Cheng, H. Cheng, T. Deng, Y.-P. Fan, C. Fang, D. Huang, L.-Q. Huang, Q. Huang, et al., “A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) infected pneumonia (standard version),” Military Medical Research, vol. 7, no. 1, p. 4, 2020.
“Ministério da saúde. coronavirus covid-19.” //coronavirus.saude.gov.br/,
Acessado em 27 de março de 2020.
X. Tang, C. Wu, X. Li, Y. Song, X. Yao, X. Wu, Y. Duan, H. Zhang, Y. Wang,
Z. Qian, et al., “On the origin and continuing evolution of sars-cov-2,” National Science Review, 2020.
R. Li, S. Pei, B. Chen, Y. Song, T. Zhang, W. Yang, and J. Shaman, “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (sars-cov2),” Science, 2020.
P. v. d. Driessche and J. Watmough, “Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission,” Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 180, pp. 29–48, 2002.
Downloads
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Seção
Licença
Direitos Autorais
Autores de artigos publicados no periódico Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics mantêm os direitos autorais de seus trabalhos. O periódico utiliza a Atribuição Creative Commons (CC-BY) nos artigos publicados. Os autores concedem ao periódico o direito de primeira publicação.
Propriedade Intelectual e Termos de uso
O conteúdo dos artigos é de responsabilidade exclusiva dos autores. O periódico utiliza a Atribuição Creative Commons (CC-BY) nos artigos publicados. Esta licença permite que os artigos publicados sejam reutilizados sem permissão para qualquer finalidade, desde que o trabalho original seja corretamente citado.
O periódico encoraja os Autores a autoarquivar seus manuscritos aceitos, publicando-os em blogs pessoais, repositórios institucionais e mídias sociais acadêmicas, bem como postando-os em suas mídias sociais pessoais, desde que seja incluída a citação completa à versão do website da revista.
